30.06.2025 – WEEKLY BRIEFING

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  • France’s Socialists submit no-confidence bill amid pensions dispute, weakening Bayrou – 24.06.2025

France’s Socialist Party has filed a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister François Bayrou, but the measure is unlikely to pass as the far-right National Rally (RN) has announced it will not support it. The move follows the collapse of months-long pension reform talks on Monday, after which Bayrou called union and employer representatives back to the table in an attempt to resolve the deadlock. The failure has left his government vulnerable ahead of tough negotiations on the 2026 budget, which includes €40 billion in planned spending cuts. Socialist leader Boris Vallaud justified the motion by accusing Bayrou of breaking his promise to submit a new pension bill to parliament. However, the RN said it had no intention of bringing down the government. Addressing parliament, Bayrou expressed confidence that a difficult but possible way forward remains. The breakdown of talks centered on revisions to a 2023 pension overhaul that raised the retirement age from 62 to 64; unions demanded early retirement options for physically demanding jobs and better treatment of maternity leave, while employers were cautious about financial implications. Bayrou had initiated the dialogue to maintain Socialist support for his centrist government.

  • Europe placates Trump with NATO pledges it can ill afford – 25.06.2025

In an effort to maintain Donald Trump’s support for NATO, European members have pledged to more than double their military spending to meet a 5% of GDP target, a goal many experts consider unrealistic given high national debts and economic constraints. While the commitment pleased Trump, who affirmed U.S. support for Europe, critics argue the focus on spending levels has overshadowed discussions on more efficient use of existing budgets, such as joint procurement. Most European countries, aside from fiscally stronger Germany, will struggle to meet the target without significant budget cuts or tax increases, potentially impacting social welfare programs. Countries closer to Russia, like Poland and the Baltics, show more willingness to increase defense budgets, whereas others, including Spain and Slovakia, express concern about the impact on social services and living standards. The agreed target includes 3.5% for core defense and 1.5% for related infrastructure, with some flexibility expected in accounting methods. Given the long deadlines, experts predict many countries will fail to fully meet the goals, resulting in slower and less coherent defense improvements than initially envisioned.

  • Trump, Hegseth slam news coverage of US intel report on Iran attack, say B-2 pilots upset – 26.06.2025

U.S. President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth rejected a preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment suggesting that recent strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities caused only limited damage, calling the report incomplete and accusing the media of disrespecting the B-2 pilots involved in the mission. Speaking at a press conference following the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump claimed the pilots were “devastated” by the suggestion the strikes were not fully successful, and insisted Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated.” Hegseth, in a separate press conference on Thursday, defended the mission and criticized the media for undermining the pilots’ achievements. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said the operation hit its intended targets and emphasized he was never pressured by political leadership. Meanwhile, officials acknowledged that a full damage assessment would take time, as no Western personnel had yet inspected the sites. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated that Iran’s nuclear facilities had been destroyed and criticized the media for selectively leaking intelligence. Hegseth argued the available imagery already proved significant damage, while Trump cited Israeli intelligence claiming the Fordo site had been rendered inoperable. Despite ongoing debate over the extent of the impact, both Trump and Hegseth emphasized the bravery and precision of the U.S. military personnel involved.

  • Russia hits Ukraine with biggest attack of the war; F-16 pilot is killed – 29.06.2025

The Ukrainian Air Force announced that Russia launched its largest attack since the beginning of the war, using 537 drones and missiles, of which 475 were intercepted; during the attack, an F-16 pilot, Maksym Ustymenko, was killed. The assault began on Saturday evening and lasted six hours, targeting multiple cities including Cherkasy, Lviv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv, causing injuries and damage to residential areas and critical infrastructure. Poland placed its air defense units on alert due to the attacks near its border. Ukraine deployed all available resources, including combat aircraft, with Western-supplied F-16s playing a key defensive role. President Zelenskyy highlighted the increasing frequency of attacks and reiterated calls for more air defense support from allies. Meanwhile, Ukraine claimed responsibility for a drone strike on the Kirovske airfield in Crimea, destroying several Russian helicopters and an air defense system.

  • UN nuclear watchdog chief says Iran could again begin enriching uranium in ‘matter of months’ – 29.06.2025

Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA, stated that the recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities did not completely destroy Tehran’s nuclear program, contradicting President Donald Trump’s claims and noting that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within a few months. A preliminary Pentagon assessment supports this view, suggesting the attacks only set back Iran’s capabilities by a few months. The U.S. targeted three key nuclear sites following a 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, but the effectiveness of these strikes remains debated. Grossi highlighted that Iran had withheld critical information from the IAEA, including unexplained traces of enriched uranium found at undeclared sites, and that Tehran is now limiting its cooperation with international inspectors. He also expressed concern over Iran’s potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits the development of nuclear weapons.

  • Israel orders evacuations in northern Gaza as Trump calls for war to end – 29.06.2025

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with security officials about the Gaza operation, as the military says it is close to its objectives but warns that expanding fighting could endanger hostages. Israel has urged civilians in northern Gaza to move to Al-Mawasi, while at least 23 people have been killed in recent attacks across the enclave. Meanwhile, Egypt and Qatar, supported by the U.S., have launched a new ceasefire effort. Hamas has stated it is ready to negotiate on the condition of a lasting ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal, while Israel insists the war will only end with Hamas’s disarmament. The conflict has so far killed over 56,000 Palestinians and pushed the region into a severe humanitarian crisis.

  • Budapest Pride: Unprecedented crowd defies Hungarian government at ‘illegal’ march – 29.06.2025

Despite a government ban, over 100,000 people participated in the Pride march in Budapest organized by the local government and the NGO Rainbow Mission, which concluded peacefully without police intervention and with counter-demonstrators kept separate. Earlier in the year, the government attempted to ban LGBTQ+ marches citing the protection of children’s rights, but Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony announced the municipality would officially organize the event, arguing it did not require a permit under assembly laws. Counter-protesters, including the Our Homeland group, were kept away from the march route by police, with the group blocking Freedom Bridge but being contained. The event was attended by members of the European Parliament and several mayors from European capitals. Karácsony declared Budapest the “capital of Europe for a day,” emphasizing the march sent a strong message against government policies. Police stopped 36 people and arrested two for minor offenses, but the march ended without any major incidents.

  • Thousands protest in Bangkok calling for Thai PM to resign – 29.06.2025

Thousands of protesters gathered in Bangkok demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra after a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen in which she referred to him as “uncle” and criticized a Thai military commander involved in a border dispute. Despite apologizing and calling the conversation a “negotiation technique,” public anger persisted. The rally, the largest against the Shinawatra-led government since it took power in 2023, saw demonstrators waving flags and calling the prime minister unfit. The protest was organized by a coalition opposing Shinawatra governments for over two decades, accusing the executive and parliament of undermining democracy and the constitutional monarchy. The incident occurred amid heightened tensions between Thailand and Cambodia following a deadly border clash in May, with long-standing historical disputes and mutual trade restrictions further straining relations. The Constitutional Court is set to decide on a petition seeking Paetongtarn’s removal over alleged unprofessionalism related to the call.

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