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Written by Lara Gülmez

Lara Gülmez was born in Istanbul in 1998. She completed undergraduate education in the Department of International Relations and Economics (Double Major) at Işık University in Turkey. During her undergraduate education, she worked as a research assistant on the production of unmanned aerialvehicles and unmanned combat aerial vehicles and rhetoric of the Turkish government. Also, she covered how tax reform affected security in Colombia and unmanned combat aerial vehicle and non-state actors’ relations. Currently, she is studying for a master’s in World Politics and International Relations at the University of Pavia in Italy.

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ABSTRACT

Third-party mediation is the most used method of resolving problems in the international system. With the start of the war in Donbas, which has been a region of tension between Russia and Ukraine for many years, Turkey became involved in the issue as a mediator state with the Antalya Diplomacy Form (ADF). This article aims to understand the motivation of Turkey as third-party mediation of the Russia-Ukraine dispute. It claims that Turkey’s domestic policy is not as long-term and complete as its foreign policy goals with the ADF.

Keywords: Third-Party Mediation, Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey

Introduction

According to Jacob Bercovitch, parties, issues, mediators, and context are the main and general factors of mediation. Apart from these, each mediation must be appropriate accordingly for crises, situations, and problems because there is no specific mediation type. In this process, non-governmental and intergovernmental organizations can be the mediator.¹ Although their characteristics, positions, and roles are different from each other, the most important common point is that the mediator should be impartial in order to ensure peace and the mediator’s role is to create credibility for each party to the other in conflict.²

Mediation has been tried and failed in the Donbas region, where tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been high since 2014-2015.³ In 2014, Luhansk and Donetsk regions were declared independent by Russian separatists. After one year, a ceasefire was declared and a “line of contact” was established to separate a region that is under the control of Ukraine and the territories which have borders Russia with an agreement.⁴

In 2022, Western countries evacuated embassy staff from the capital of Ukraine. Also, some countries have issued warnings for their citizens to leave Ukraine. Moreover, military troops were increased by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia, and the United States (U.S) in the region.⁵ On February 24, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine officially began in Donas, Luhansk, and Sumy regions.⁶ According to the statements of Russia, the main aim is to promote the liberation of Donbas and to create a demilitarized Ukraine.⁷

1 Marsh, Samuel A., “Challenges of Third-Party Mediation in the Donbas Conflict” (2021). CISLA Senior Integrative Projects. 23. p. 3-6.
2 Ivi, p. 7.
3 Ivi, p. 27.
4 J. D. WALTER, “why is the Donbas so important for Russia?”, Deutsche Welle, 06 September 2022.
5 Aljazeera Staff, “Timeline: How did the recent Ukraine-Russia crisis start?”, Aljazeera, 13 February 2022
6 P. KIRBY, “Has Putin’s war failed and what does Russia want from Ukraine?”, BBC, 24 February 2023.
7 P. KIRBY, “Has Putin’s war failed and what does Russia want from Ukraine?”, BBC, 24 February 2023.

As the war continues, Turkey came to the agenda with its economic crisis and its mediator role in the international system. Firstly, Turkey tried to prevent rapidly rising inflation, but transport costs, the price of gas and food were peak in 2022.⁸ Secondly, Turkey hosted the Antalya Diplomacy Forum-II between Russia and Ukraine on March 11-13, 2022.⁹ The government believes that they can discuss their demands and conditions of war thanks to the ADF 2022.¹⁰ It is a significant mediation role for Turkey.¹¹ Also, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed “hope for the meeting to open doors for a permanent cease-fire” in his statement.¹² Therefore, Turkey can maintain its neutral position and its relations with both countries thanks to the meeting.¹³

1. Third-Party Mediation

The definition of third-party mediation is that during an ongoing conflict, the third party tries to negotiate voluntarily and with the mutual decision of all parties, without violence, sanctions, and pressure on the parties to the conflict.¹⁴ In the third-party mediation, the mediator can be representative of state, individuals, or representative of organizations. Firstly, if an individual becomes a mediator, who this person is and the sources of his/her knowledge are important questions. Secondly, the representatives of the organizations are also divided into three groups within themselves. Types of regional and international organizations consist of the states and impartiality is the main attitude for them. Transnational organizations consist of individuals and common interest is a primary factor in this type. Finally, third-party mediation by the state is the most preferred among these types. Mediator achievement is also referred to the state achievement.¹⁵ Furthermore, there are some situations determine that how the negotiation should be on the issues.

For instance, the involved parties’ relations may base on the past, the dynamics of power among the parties, and the similarities and differences of the religious, economic, cultural, and political values of the parties are significant elements to shape mediation way.¹⁶

8 E. TOPCU, “Turkey: Why inflation is skyrocketing under Erdogan”, Deutsche Welle, 15 June 2022.
9 TRT World Staff, “Türkiye’s Antalya Forum looks for solutions to Russia-Ukraine war, and more”, TRT WORLD, 2022.
10 TRT World Staff, “Turkiye playing major role in mediating Russia-Ukraine tensions”, TRT WORLD, 2023.
11 TRT World Staff, “Turkiye playing major role in mediating Russia-Ukraine tensions”, TRT WORLD, 2023.
12 M. AYDOGAN, “Turkiye, Ukraine, Russia foreign ministers conclude meeting”, Anadolu Agency, 10 March 2022.
13 B. OZTURK, “Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: Turkey as the Peacemaker”, Politics Today, 5 April 2022.
14 Ivi, p.3.
15 Ibidem.
16 Ivi, p. 8-9.

Moreover, the duration of the conflict, the causes of the issue, and the motivation of parties also affect the mediation.¹⁷ The motivation means that the states or international organizations may feel responsible for the crisis. On the contrary, they may not take responsibility because they see the crisis as a risk. In addition, individuals can realize their diplomatic advantages in mediation and become the main actor in this role.¹⁸ Therefore, third-party must choose their own strategy to resolve the issue because there is no certain way. Each problem has its own reasons and results for this reason solution can be unique.¹⁹

According to Touval and Zartman, communication-facilitation, procedural-formulation, and manipulation-directive are the three main strategies in the mediation process. The first strategy tries to create credibility and neutral information for parties at the negotiating table. The second strategy gives power to the mediator in order to organize negotiating meetings. The final strategy focus on encouragement and deterrence to establish a new framework for negotiation in dispute.²⁰ Strategies and implementations can have positive and negative consequences during mediation. However, if the issue is about regional and national security, it can be directly stated that mediation is less effective in conflict.²¹

2. How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Affected the World and Turkey?

Even if the involved parties are geopolitically bordering each other (See Figure 1)²² and the goal is only related to the one region, the invasion negatively affects the whole world in terms of human capacity, food, and economy.

In 2022, Russia claimed that 23,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and Ukraine claim that more than 35,000 Russian soldiers died in the ongoing war.²³ According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) report, Ukrainian civilian deaths and injuries were more than 10,000 in the end of the year.²⁴

17 Ivi, p. 10-11.
18 Ibidem.
19 Ivi, p. 3-5.
20 Ivi, p. 13-14.
21 Ivi, p. 10.
22 A. ROTH, D SABBAGH, P. SCRUTON, H. SYMONS, F.SHEEHY, G. SWANN, N. HOOG, “Where is fighting
happening and how did we get here?”, The Guardian, 15 May 2022.
23 S. HABERSHON, R. ENGLAND, B. DALE & O. IVSHINA, “War in Ukraine: Can we say how many people have died?”, BBC, 1 July 2022.
24 United Nations Human Rights Office of The High Commissioner for Human Right. (2023). Civilian Casualties in Ukraine from 24 February 2022 to 30 June 2023.

Figure 1: Border Map (Between Russia and Ukraine)

In addition to this, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food rose in emerging countries and developed countries because Ukrainian export decreased in 2022.25 For this reason, central banks must intervene in the inflation rate. Governments should a new macro policy to reduce the economic risk and to prevent volatilities in financial markets and exchange rates.²⁶ Specifically, the conflict creates major risky economic and financial scenarios for Turkey. Firstly, the dependence of import product will increase for Turkey because export is decreasing in all countries. Secondly, higher public spending and interest rate policies will lead to increasing in the current account deficit, rising of market prices, inflation rate will continue to increase, and depreciation of the Turkish lira in economy.²⁷

However, three major crises could not enough for both sides to decide to end the war. Ukraine’s demand is the withdrawal of the Russian army from Ukrainian territory, including the Donbas and Crimea. Russia’s conditions are Ukraine must guarantee that it will not become a member of NATO and it recognizes that Crimea is a territory of Russia.²⁸

25 D. BANKOVA, P. DUTTA, M. OVASKA, “The war in Ukraine is fuelling a global food crisis”, Reuters, 30 May 2022.
26 ALBULUT, Ilhan Ilker. TETIK, Nevzat, “The-Effect-of-the-Russian-Ukraine-War-on-Turkey’s-Economy-and-Financial- Markets”, in OZSUNGUR, Fahri (ed), Handbook of Research on War Policies, Strategies, and Cyber Wars, ResearchGate, IGI Global, 2023, pp. 313
27 Ibidem.
28 M. AYDOGAN, “Turkiye, Ukraine, Russia foreign ministers conclude meeting”, Anadolu Agency, 10 March 2022.

3. What Is Antalya Diplomacy Forum?

Antalya Diplomacy Forum has the idea of diplomacy must be developed, transformed, and adapted to run a crisis, solve a conflict, promote cooperation in the system. For this reason, the ADF emphasizes the importance of diplomacy to discuss issues, to find effective ways to problems with multiple actors.²⁹ The aim of ADF is promote of interactive and multi- stakeholder discussion in the local, regional, and global challenges in the international arena.³⁰

Therefore, Antalya Diplomacy Forum took place under the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey in two different years which are the ADF 2021 and the ADF 2022.³¹ In the first year, the forum focused on the improvement of regional power and transatlantic relations.³² In the second year, the topics were mostly related to global issues such as food security, climate change, and post-Covid 19 process.³³

Technically, the ADF’s name and location have the historical background. Choosing the word of “forum” shows that Turkey referred to the past with this meeting.³⁴ In ancient Rome, people had an open place, a “forum” to discuss and make decisions about common issues.³⁵ In the 2020s, Turkey made an open area to talk about global problems, to create a peaceful atmosphere for all parties.

City of Antalya, which is a tourism center, is coming from the ancient city of Patara. Patara was the capital of the oldest republics in history.³⁶ Minister Cavusoglu also mentioned the importance of Patara. He said, “We organized the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in this city, which was home to Patara, the first parliament of the world, where the tradition of seeking solutions to problems by talking and negotiating began” on the ADF.³⁷ Historical background shows that Turkey has made a successful choice to bring different actors together and create an atmosphere for conversation in Antalya.³⁸

29 USTE, Ahmet Nazmi. S. AYDIN, Ulviyye, “A New Era in Diplomacy: The Case of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum”, DergiPark, vol. 27, n.2 (2023), pp. 215.
30 Ivi, p. 212.
31 Ivi, p. 210-213.
32 Ivi, p. 213.
33 Ibidem.
34 Ibidem.
35 Ivi, p. 209.
36 Ivi, p. 210.
37 Ivi, p. 211.
38 Ivi, p. 210.

2.1. Meaning of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum for the Russia-Ukraine War

Although the took place several official meeting between both countries, the first time Russia sent a minister to talk about the war. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated that Russia wanted to solve the problem with diplomatic way. Also, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba gave the same message to resolve issue with the demand for a ceasefire. However, minister Kuleba added that there is no progress on the ceasefire because Russia did not ensure the stop of shooting to access to aid for civilians.³⁹

2.2 Meaning of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum for Turkey

Geographically, Turkey has borders with Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea. It provides good relationships in the fields of economics and politics with both countries.⁴⁰ In particular, the relationship between Russia and Turkey depends on tourism, energy, and trade cooperation since 2013.⁴¹ On the other side, the dimension of law and sovereignty are the framework of the relationship between Turkey and Ukraine since 2014.⁴² Also, the strong relationship created a new trade cooperation area and Turkey started to sell the drones to Ukraine.⁴³

In fact, Republic of Turkey does not want to lose its position despite the war because it reached credible agreements with these countries in the long term.⁴⁴ Therefore, Turkey assumed the role of mediator between the parties to maintain the neutrality policies in the foreign policy and prevent possible crises in its domestic policy.⁴⁵

From the Turkish foreign policy perspective, it wants to protect the balance policy of the two countries because their relations are not limited to only one dimension. For instance, Turkey and Russia have cooperation based on commerce, but they also have a dialogue based on the trust in Syria.⁴⁶ Similarly, the relation with Ukraine is based on the sovereignty, also it is a significant defense industry partner for Turkey.⁴⁷ Due to their multi-dimensional relations, Turkey’s mediator role is not an unexpected situation.⁴⁸

39 Aljazeera Staff, “‘No progress’ as top Russia, Ukraine diplomats talk in Turkey”, Aljazeera ,10 Mar 2022.
40 Aljazeera Staff, “‘No progress’ as top Russia, Ukraine diplomats talk in Turkey”, Aljazeera ,10 Mar 2022.
41 A. BABACAN, “What Role Can Turkey Play Between Russia and Ukraine in Antalya?”, Politics Today, 10 March 2022.
42 A. BABACAN, “What Role Can Turkey Play Between Russia and Ukraine in Antalya?”, Politics Today, 10 March 2022.
43 Aljazeera Staff, “‘No progress’ as top Russia, Ukraine diplomats talk in Turkey”, Aljazeera ,10 Mar 2022.
44 Aljazeera Staff, “‘No progress’ as top Russia, Ukraine diplomats talk in Turkey”, Aljazeera ,10 Mar 2022.
45 B. OZTURK, “Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: Turkey as the Peacemaker”, Politics Today, 5 April 2022.
46 U. Farooq, “Why is Turkey trying to mediate the Ukraine-Russia crisis?”, Aljazeera, 28 January 2022.
47 U. Farooq, “Why is Turkey trying to mediate the Ukraine-Russia crisis?”, Aljazeera, 28 January 2022.
48 B. OZTURK, “Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: Turkey as the Peacemaker”, Politics Today, 5 April 2022.

According to Mustafa Aydin, professor at Kadir Has University, the ADF is “a step forward” because Moscow’s attitude turned to negotiations with this meeting. He added that it may lead to Moscow preferring a diplomatic way instead of using weapons in the long term. Also, it is an achievement for the Turkey because it succeeded in neutrally confronting the sides of the war. ⁴⁹ Apart from success, this situation has major dilemmas. According to a former diplomat Sinan Ulgen, Turkish foreign policy may face two different dilemmas with the trade partners during the war. If NATO join the war, Turkey may have to change its Russian dialogues and it may have to review the drone agreement with Ukraine.⁵⁰

From the Turkish domestic policy perspective, it tries to protect its economy in terms of energy, food, and tourism from the war. Firstly, if the state is an energy-dependent country like Turkey, the war will create a current deficit and more rising prices in the energy sector. Secondly, Turkey fears that declining in trade and facing famine in the society because it is imports of wheat and sunflower oil from both countries. Finally, it is concerned about the low tourist rate. Tourism sector is a source of foreign currency for the Turkish economy. Moreover, Russians and Ukrainians have the majoritarian of the tourist population in Turkey.⁵¹

4. What Happened in the Battlefield and Turkey After Antalya Diplomacy Forum?

Between 2022 and 2023, military control shifted geographically in the war zone. Russia withdrew from the city of Kharkiv and the occupied Sumy region. Also, Ukraine’s military control has expanded in the city of Kherson (See Figure 2).⁵² Also, there are huge differences in the casualties of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers and Russian soldiers. According to OHCHR 2023 data, civilian casualties and injuries are not more than 10,000 in Ukraine (See Figure 3).⁵³ Furthermore, according to the US intelligence claims, Russia and Ukraine total soldier casualties more than 300,000 in the Donbas.⁵⁴

49 U. Farooq, “Why is Turkey trying to mediate the Ukraine-Russia crisis?”, Aljazeera, 28 January 2022.
50 U. Farooq, “Why is Turkey trying to mediate the Ukraine-Russia crisis?”, Aljazeera, 28 January 2022.
51 B. OZTURK, “Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: Turkey as the Peacemaker”, Politics Today, 5 April 2022.
52 P. KIRBY, “Has Putin’s war failed and what does Russia want from Ukraine?”, BBC, 24 February 2023.
53 United Nations Human Rights Office of The High Commissioner for Human Right. (2023). Civilian Casualties in Ukraine from 24 February 2022 to 30 June 2023.
54 Aljazeera Staff, “Ukraine war likely to stretch past 2023: Purported US documents”, Aljazeera, 12 April 2023.

Figure 2: Changing Military Control in the War Zone

Figure 3: Ukrainian Total Civilian Casualties (from 2022 to 2023)

In 2023, Economic problems continued in the mediator country of the war. Especially, the depreciation of the Turkish lira, the increase in inflation, and the increase in market prices have been continuing since 2022. According to The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) data on February 24, 2022, 1 Euro was equal to 16 Turkish lira and 1 American dollar (USD) was equal to 15 Turkish lira. At the end of July 2023, 1 Euro is equals to 30 Turkish liras and 1 USD is equals to 27 Turkish liras (See Figure 4).⁵⁵ Also, inflation rate was more than the 80% in the end of the 2022. Even if it decreased until July 2023, it is still close to the percentage of 50 (See Figure 5).⁵⁶ Finally, the processed and unprocessed food price index does not show a radical change within one year (See Table 2).⁵⁷ Apart from economic problems, according to the Turkish Minister of Culture and Tourism, Antalya is second in the ranking of the entry cities of foreign visitors to Turkey in 2023.⁵⁸ Also, the rate of Russian visitors among visitors to Turkey has increased rather than the Ukrainian visitors (See Table 1).⁵⁹

Figure 4: Exchange Rate in Turkey (from 2022 to 2023)

55 Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. (2023). Exchange Rates.
56 Trading Economics. (2023). Turkey Inflation Rate.
57 Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. (2023). Inflation Report 2023 – II.
58 Turkish Minister of Culture and Tourism. (2023). Number of Arriving-Departing Foreigner and Citizens June 2023.
59 Turkish Minister of Culture and Tourism. (2023). Number of Arriving-Departing Foreigner and Citizens June 2023.

Figure 5: Inflation Rate in Turkey (from 2022 to 2023)

Table 1: Distribution of Arriving Foreign Visitors by Nationality in Turkey

Table 2: Turkey Consumer Price Index

Conclusion

Mediation is one of the most common ways to resolve crises in the international system. Basically, mediators must be impartial and reliable. Also, when there is a third-party mediator, it must be voluntary and non-violent for the involved parties. The reason for the dispute, the duration of the discussion, its connection with the past, and the motivation of the parties and mediator shape the negotiation process. These matters are seen in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

The Donbas region, which is the battlefield, has been a problematic region for the two countries since 2014. Also, Crimea is the one of the conditions of both parties. It shows that the problem coming from the past. While Ukraine demanded the withdrawal of Russia from both territories, Russia demanded that Ukraine must give the guarantee that it would not be a member of a military international organization and it will recognize that Crimea is a Russian territory. These matters were declared at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. The Republic of Turkey voluntarily and responsibly assumed its mediation role. It implemented the strategy of impartial information and creating a favorable environment for the parties thanks to the ADF.

In addition to this, the motivation for Turkey’s mediation in this war is that it wants to maintain its long-standing economic agreements and political relations with the parties of the conflict. Another motivation for Turkey is to repair its economy, which was damaged by the war, and to prevent possible crises. According to 2023 data, the Turkish economy has not completely reached its target because Turkish lira continued to depreciate and inflation continued to rise. Nevertheless, it has succeeded in making Antalya preferred by foreigners and increasing the rate of Russian tourists. On the other hand, it has been successful in its foreign policy by organizing the ADF in its neutral policy. As proof of this, there is no crisis in trade agreements with the parties of conflict until mid-2023.

Although the high military casualties of both countries and the changing territories of control, ceasefire could not be reached with the ADF between Russia and Ukraine. While the problems in the Donbas and Crimea are related to the recognition and liberalization of the regions from the past, it seems difficult to achieve a long-term ceasefire. This consequence is not unexpected because if the issue is about regional and national security, mediation is less effective in the dispute.

• ALBULUT, Ilhan, I. TETIK, Nevzat, “The-Effect-of-the-Russian-Ukraine-War-on-Turkey’s- Economy-and-Financial-Markets”, in OZSUNGUR, Fahri (ed), Handbook of Research on War Policies, Strategies, and Cyber Wars, ResearchGate, IGI Global, 2023, pp. 313.
• Aljazeera Staff, “‘No progress’ as top Russia, Ukraine diplomats talk in Turkey”, Aljazeera ,10 March 2022.
• Aljazeera Staff, “Timeline: How did the recent Ukraine-Russia crisis start?”, Aljazeera, 13 February 2022.
• Aljazeera Staff, “Ukraine war likely to stretch past 2023: Purported US documents”, Aljazeera, 12 April 2023.
• Aydogan, Merve, “Turkiye, Ukraine, Russia foreign ministers conclude meeting”, Anadolu Agency, 10 March 2022.
• Babacan, Abdurrahman, “What Role Can Turkey Play Between Russia and Ukraine in Antalya?”, Politics Today, 10 March 2022.
• Bankova, Dea, Dutta, Prasanta, K., Ovaska, Micheal, “The war in Ukraine is fuelling a global food crisis”, Reuters, 30 May 2022.
• Farooq, Umar, “Why is Turkey trying to mediate the Ukraine-Russia crisis?”, Aljazeera, 28 January 2022.
• Habershon, Sarah, England, Rob, Dale, Becky, Ivshina, Olga, “War in Ukraine: Can we say how many people have died?”, BBC, 01 July 2022.
• https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (accessed, 30 July 2023).
• https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi, Trading Economics (accessed, 30 July 2023).
• https://www.ktb.gov.tr/EN-338400/2023.html, Turkish Minister of Culture and Tourism (accessed, 30 July 2023).
• https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Report s/Inflation+Report/2023/Inflation+Report+2023+-+II, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (accessed, 30 July 2023).
• Kirby, Paul, “Has Putin’s war failed and what does Russia want from Ukraine?”, BBC, 24 February 2022.
• Marsh, Samuel A., “Challenges of Third-Party Mediation in the Donbas Conflict” (2021). CISLA Senior Integrative Projects. 23. p. 3-27.
• Ozturk, Bilgehan, “Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: Turkey as the Peacemaker”, Politics Today, 05 April 2022.
• Roth, Andrew, Sabbagh, Dan, Scruton, Paul, Symons, Harvey, Sheehy, Finbarr, Swann, Glenn, Hoog, Niels, “Where is fighting happening and how did we get here?”, The Guardian, 15 May 2022.
• Topcu, Elmas, “Turkey: Why inflation is skyrocketing under Erdogan”, Deutsche Welle, 15 June 2022.
• Trt World Staff, “Turkiye playing major role in mediating Russia-Ukraine tensions”, Trt World, 2023.
• Trt World Staff, “Turkiye’s Antalya Forum looks for solutions to Russia-Ukraine war, and more”, Trt World, 2022.
• United Nations Human Rights Office of The High Commissioner for Human Right. (2023). Civilian Casualties in Ukraine from 24 February 2022 to 30 June 2023, pp. 3.
• USTE, Ahmet Nazmi. S. AYDIN, Ulviyye, “A New Era in Diplomacy: The Case of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum”, DergiPark, vol. 27, n.2 (2023), pp. 209-215.
• Walter, Jan, D., “why is the Donbas so important for Russia?”, Deutsche Welle, 06 September 2022.